U.S. Spy Satellite, Power Gone, May Hit Earth

By THE NEW YORK TIMES

Published: January 27, 2008

WASHINGTON — A disabled American spy satellite is rapidly descending and is likely to plunge to Earth by late February or early March, posing a potential danger from its debris, officials said Saturday.

Officials said that they had no control over the nonfunctioning satellite and that it was unknown where the debris might land.

“Appropriate government agencies are monitoring the situation,” Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said in a statement. “Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly. We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause.”

Specialists who follow spy satellite operations suspect it is an experimental imagery satellite built by Lockheed Martin and launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California in December 2006 aboard a Delta II rocket. Shortly after the satellite reached orbit, ground controllers lost the ability to control it and were never able to regain communication.

“It’s not necessarily dead, but deaf,” said Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and an analyst of various government space programs.

It is fairly common for satellites to drop out of orbit and enter Earth’s atmosphere, but most break up before they reach the surface, Mr. McDowell said. Such incidents occur every few months, and it is often difficult to control the satellite’s trajectory or its re-entry into the atmosphere. The debris, if any survives the fiery descent, typically lands in remote areas and causes little or no harm.

“For the most part,” Mr. McDowell said, “re-entering space hardware isn’t a threat because so much of the Earth is empty. But one could say we’ve been lucky so far.”

Of particular concern in this case, however, is that the debris from the satellite may include hydrazine fuel, which is typically used for rocket maneuvers in space.

Much of the fuel on the experimental satellite may not have been used and, should the tank survive re-entry into the atmosphere, the remaining fuel would be hazardous to anyone on the ground. It is likely, however, that the tank may rupture on re-entry, and that the fuel would burn off in a fiery plume that would be visible to the naked eye.

John E. Pike, the director of Globalsecurity.org in Alexandria, Va., said that if the satellite in question was a spy satellite, it was unlikely to have any kind of nuclear fuel, but that it could contain toxins, including beryllium, which is often used as a rigid frame for optical components.

Since it was launched, the experimental satellite has been in a slowly decaying orbit. As of Jan. 22, it was moving in a circular orbit at about 275 kilometers above the Earth, Mr. McDowell said. In the last month, its orbit has declined by 15 to 20 kilometers.

“If you plot the curve, it’s now just a matter of weeks before it falls out of orbit,” he said.

The largest uncontrolled re-entry by a NASA spacecraft was that of Skylab, the 78-ton abandoned space station that fell from orbit in 1979.

Virgin Galactic(SpaceShipTwo)

Development of SpaceShipTwo

Artist's concept of the VSS Enterprise

After talks throughout 2004, on September 24, 2004 Virgin Galactic signed a deal worth up to US$21 million with Mojave Aerospace Ventures to license the patents behind the Tier One project for purposes of space tourism. The deal was announced by Branson and Burt Rutan on September 27, 2004 at the Royal Aeronautical Society in London. The initial plan is for Rutan to design and build five suborbital tourist craft based on a scaled-up version of SpaceShipOne. Construction began in 2005, with twelve to eighteen months of intensive testing (comprising at least 50-100 test flights) planned. Actual spaceflights for ordinary citizens are expected to begin on the SpaceShipTwo VSS Enterprise in Upham, New Mexico soon after. It is unknown whether a recent explosion which took place at Scaled Composites will affect the date of the maiden flight.^[4][5] However, Virgin Galactic and Scaled Composites plan to present their SpaceShipTwo with its WhiteKnightTwo carrier aircraft on January 23, 2008 at the American Museum of Natural History in New York.

General overview of the spacecraft flights

Artist's concept of WhiteKnightTwo and SpaceShipTwo together on ascent

It is planned that the spacecraft are to be robust and affordable enough to take paying passengers. The craft is projected to be a six passenger, two pilot craft.^[1] It is planned to make suborbital flights, with a short period of weightlessness. The time from liftoff of the White Knight II booster carrying SpaceShipTwo until the touchdown of SpaceShipTwo after the suborbital flight will be about 2.5 hours. The suborbital flight itself will only be a small fraction of that time. The weightlessness will last approximately 6 minutes.^[2] Passengers will be able to release themselves from their seats during these 6 minutes and float around the cabin.

SpaceShipTwo's performance

SpaceShipTwo will fly a little higher than SpaceShipOne, to a height of 110 km in order to go beyond the defined boundary of space (100 km) and lengthen the experience of weightlessness.^[1] The spacecraft will reach around Mach 3 (1000 m/s), which is slightly faster than current fighter jets are capable of attaining, however the spacecraft will not be able to sustain that speed for long periods of time. To re-enter the atmosphere SpaceShipTwo folds its wings up, and then returns them to their original position for a smooth and gentle glide back onto the runway. The craft has a very limited cross-range capability and therefore has to land in the area where it started.

Bookings

Although the initial deposit is set to be $200,000 for the first 100 to fly, the next 400 will pay a deposit between $100,000 and $175,000; all passengers after that will pay a deposit of only $20,000 each.

Among those reported to have told Branson that they wished to be among the first to fly on the spacecraft are actor William Shatner designer Philippe Starck, The Panic Channel guitarist Dave Navarro,^[10] Alien star Sigourney Weaver, Hollywood director Bryan Singer,^[9] Musician Moby,^[10] socialite Paris Hilton,^[12] and astrophysicist Stephen Hawking (who on January 8, 2007 announced plans to take a sub-orbital flight in 2009^[13]). Also, Richard Branson himself and some of his family members will be launched on the VSS Enterprise's first commercial flight in 2009, before everyone else. In 2006, Richard Branson offered actor William Shatner a free ride on the inaugural space launch in 2008, saving Shatner $200,000; however, Shatner turned it down, and said, "I do want to go up but I need guarantees I'll definitely come back".In addition, other celebrities such as Patrick Stewart have expressed serious doubts about flying into space. In March 2005, Doug Ramsberg, a native of Northglenn, Colorado, won a free trip to suborbital space aboard Virgin Galactic, from a Volvo sweepstakes sponsored by Virgin.In September 2006, Alan Watts, a British businessman, indicated that he was able to redeem 2,000,000 frequent flyer miles for a ticket aboard a 2009 Virgin Galactic space flight.